Victoria leads nation’s population growth

According to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS released 21 March 2024) Victoria continues to lead the nation’s population growth which highlights the strong long-term fundamentals for the state’s housing market.

Victoria’s population increased by around 192,700 in the year ending September 30,2023. This was the largest increase when comparing all states and territories. New South Wales recorded population growth of around 186,100.

The ABS data highlighted that Victoria’s population growth was driven by (net) overseas migration (over 161,750).

George Bougias, National Head of Research at Oliver Hume said, “The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics highlights the strong fundamentals for Victoria’s housing market. We have been in a fairly subdued market coming out of COVID-19 but we expect Melbourne to outperform in the next phase of the property market cycle. This view is based on various factors including widespread housing shortages in Melbourne and across the nation.

“Australia is currently facing a serious housing crisis unlike any in our recent history. Limited availability of affordable housing, new housing, land supply constraints and a very tight rental market means an increasing number of people are increasingly looking at more affordable areas including metropolitan greenfield locations such as Windermere.”

Current Federal and State Government policy settings are unlikely to solve the crisis in the short to medium term and we expect further pressure, especially on our five largest capital cities which have traditionally absorbed most of the nation’s population growth.

George asserts the housing supply and affordability crisis in Australia’s capital cities and many regional markets is likely to deteriorate over the next few years.

The Federal Government’s National Housing Supply and Affordability Council recent report (released 3 May 2024) notes that demand for housing will exceed new market supply until 2026–27.

The housing shortage will be especially acute in Melbourne and Sydney, which has traditionally attracted most of Australia’s international migrants, but where residential development conditions remain extremely challenging.

The Federal government has set the target of building another 1.2 million dwellings over the next five years however, current policy settings and market conditions mean these targets are unlikely to be reached.

George concluded, “Australia’s well-documented robust population growth is underpinned by overseas immigration. Many new migrants, together with many younger Australians looking to enter the property market are discovering that greenfield areas in outer city suburban locations continue to offer greater affordability and value for money.”

Four-bedroom home and land packages in Windermere can be purchased from $612,500.

To find an affordable land lot visit the Windermere Sales Gallery at 275 Greens Road, Mambourin to discuss land and home and land package opportunities. Open by appointment only.